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Дискусия в 'Хоби и развлечение' започната от коджамихалев, 31/12/21.

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    п»їSports Betting Percentages from Sportsbooks.
    Members of Sports Insights enjoy the unique ability to access sports betting percentages coming directly from databases of our contributing sportsbooks. These betting activity statistics are also referred to as betting trends. For the first time, sports bettors see what is actually happening on the sportsbook side. Members enjoy real time betting data (odds, betting percentages, injury reports), providing the ability to monitor the day’s action bet by bet.
    Understanding the Sports Betting Percentages Statistics:
    What makes our Betting Trends data different?
    We’ve been tracking sports betting percentages (betting trends) data since 1999 We offer historical betting odds and trends data We monitor betting activity at multiple contributing sportsbooks Mores sportsbooks results in more data and stronger numbers We track Spread, Moneyline, Totals, and Parlays.
    Below is a screenshot from our Sportsbook Insider live odds page. We display both betting percentages and odds. In Game #451, Dallas Cowbovs vs. New York Giants, Dallas received 52% of the “SPD” (spread) bets placed on this game, while New York received 48%. The Cowboys also received 73% of ML (moneyline) bets versus just 27% for the Giants.
    Individual Sportsbook Betting Statistics – SAMPLE.
    In addition to creating the worlds first true “sports betting marketplace”, we’ve developed a rich set of sports betting tools to help members capitalize on this revolutionary information. Our original thinking and pioneering features will help you achieve consistent winning results. Once you start using SI’s original content, you’ll ask yourself how you ever lived without it. Read more about Sports Insights Advantages, Sports Insights Betting Systems, and Compare Sports Insights to other live odds services.

    Winning Percentages in Betting.
    What percentage of bets should a professional sports bettor win?
    Hint. It’s not that easy a question to answer.
    The first thing you should know is that the highest winning percentage is not necessarily the ‘best’ winning percentage.
    Much of the public believe that pros should be winning around 60% of their wagers on the handicap at odds of -110 (10/11 or 1.91). Yet they are wrong.
    One should also note that the percentage difference between successful winning professionals and losing casual bettors is quite small, which perhaps in itself illustrates how tough it is to win consistently.
    Breaking it down to a ‘coin flip’ situation, everyone should be able to win 50% of their bets long term, this would of course put them in the ‘loser’ bracket because they would slowly be eaten up by the vigorish – the sportsbook’s built in commission. In contrast professional bettors can rarely do better than a 58% winners over the long term and many won’t even achieve that number.
    The thing is that winning percentages are actually incidental to making money from sports betting.
    Take ‘bettor A’ who manages e.g. a winning percentage of 60% winners (somehow!). If bettor A has ten bets on the handicap and wins six of them, losing four, then A has done amazingly well.
    6 winning bets = 6 units minus 4 losing bets (which is 4.4 units after the ‘vig’) = 1.6 units of profit.
    Now take bettor B who manages e.g. a winning percentage of 57% winners, but he bets on more events. He has twenty-eight bets on the handicap and wins sixteen of them, losing twelve.
    16 winning bets = 16 winning units minus 12 losing bets (which is 13.2 units after the ‘vig’) = 2.8 units of profit.
    Which bettor is the more skilled? Well one thing’s for sure, even though bettor B has a lower winning percentage than bettor A, he’s the one who has made more money, and perhaps more ready to ‘pull the trigger’ on bets with a smaller ‘edge’ than bettor A.
    So stepping back a moment, if the break-even point on the handicap is around 53%, then there should be nothing stopping the professional bettor taking anything that he thinks has a winning percentage of 54% and above, since the volume of bets is such an important factor in pro betting. Repeatedly applying a small advantage gets you to good profit.
    Taking a different perspective, one could say that bettor A’s winning percentage of 60%, is in fact too high! Why? Because to maintain a winning percentage of 60%, bettor A could not be taking full advantage of all bets available to him at value. Bets that he should be making.
    The other point about ‘applying your advantage’ as often as possible is the issue regarding your bankroll, which is covered in another post , but suffice it to say that it is better to have more bets risking a smaller stakes, than it is to have fewer bets risking larger stakes. Higher volume ‘irons out’ volatility and gives you a better idea of where you are in terms of your likely betting profit and loss.
    Just a cautionary note to those of you starting out on your betting journey. Betting is not ‘fair’. Probability is not ‘fair’. Just because you may be a good bettor and are likely to win e.g. 60% of your bets, it is unlikely to happen in a ‘regular fashion’! It is highly unlikely that you will win six of your first ten bets, or twelve of your first twenty bets, and so on… nothing so precise.
    You will hit streaks of wins and losses, feel the elation of being a ‘superhero’ winning sports bettor as well as feeling the ‘churning anxiety’ of a losing sports bettor. It’s normal. Don’t turn it into something it isn’t. You could just as easily start off on a win to loss ratio of 8-2, as you could 2-8, and it would mean nothing with regards your ability as a sports bettor .
    In fact it is those long winning and losing streaks and how you react to them, that will most often decide your success or failure as a bettor….Oh that and avoiding sports touts and handicappers like the one in this video!

    Why Sports Betting Is Profitable.
    Winning Handicappers.
    Sports betting appeals to the smart bettor because it is not a game with a fixed house edge where the casinos are raking off fixed percentage. Sports betting requires more skill than luck similar to live poker. You won’t win every time but the skilled handicapper has a huge advantage over the recreational bettor. Before going into more detail you need to understand how sports betting works. We will take a look at football where a point spread is involved. (Basketball also uses a ​point spread.)
    The casino Sportsbooks make their money on sports bets by collecting a commission on losing bets. This is called the Vigorish or Vig for short. The most common odds are 11 to 10. This means that if you want to win $100 you are risking $110. For example, you place a bet on the Giants at the casino sports book and pay $110. If the Giants win you collect $210 when you cash your winning ticket. If you lose your bet you lose the $110.
    Ideally, the Sportsbook would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. If the Giants are playing the Colts and they have one player betting on the Giants and one player betting on the Colts they would pay the winner $100 but collect $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit so they really don’t care who wins as long as they have an equal amount bet on each team. To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides.
    The Point Spread.
    Many people believe that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory by which one team will beat another team. This is not true. The line is the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. For this reason, the line may change from the opening line to the line at game time. The Sportsbooks goal is to have the betting as evenly as possible.
    If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts to the opinions of others. This is why you see so many people “Jumping on the bandwagon” of a winning team.​
    For the sports books, the line is flawed if it does not attract the same amount of action on both sides however from a smart handicapper’s point of view, the line is flawed when it does not compute to his predicted outcome of the game. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor. For example Team A should be a 3 point underdog to Team B, however, The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public.
    The Handicapper.
    A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies. A large amount of data available via the internet and other sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more to sift through to find the gems. The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data.
    Why don’t more people win at sports betting? Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful. A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire. Based on the odds of -110 for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right 52.38 percent of the time to break even however many sports bettors cannot achieve that percentage of winning over the long run. The chart below shows the break-even points for the various odds you will encounter when you make a bet on the money line. With higher odds, you have to have a higher winning percentage to break even. If you bet the underdogs you can have a lower win percentage and still make money.

    Sports betting percantages.
    Who Does the Public Like? The following feature monitors wagering activity at many of the largest online sportsbooks. These "betting percentages" represent actual wagers placed on each game at the participating sportsbooks. This data is delayed 30 mins. Click on the linear graph feature located on the right-hand side to view stats over a 24-hr period. The information is intended to give bettors a deeper understanding of the sports marketplace.
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    John McCain’s Widow Endorses Biden, As Senate Report Condemns Hunter.
    There have been many high-profile Republicans that have spoken out against Donald Trump’s campaign and endorsed Joe Biden as the next POTUS.
    Former Ohio governor John Kasich even went as far as speaking at the Democratic National Convention to make a clear statement that the nation is in peril if it continues under the guidance of Donald Trump.
    Republican Senator John McCain and Donald Trump were often at odds, and now his widow, Cindy McCain, has offered her endorsement for Joe Biden.
    Trump was quick to respond to Cindy’s decision to support Biden on Twitter:
    I hardly know Cindy McCain other than having put her on a Committee at her husband’s request. Joe Biden was John McCain’s lapdog. So many BAD decisions on Endless Wars & the V.A., which I brought from a horror show to HIGH APPROVAL. Never a fan of John. Cindy can have Sleepy Joe! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 23, 2020.
    Although the additional support from GOP officials is good news for Joe Biden, all is not rosy in Biden’s world.
    Yesterday, a report from GOP leadership in the US Senate revealed the findings of an investigation into Hunter Biden’s dealings while working for a firm in the Ukraine during his father’s tenure as Vice President of the United States.
    Hunter Biden’s Ukrainian business deadlines were the subject of a phone call with foreign officials that eventually got Donald Trump impeached by the US House of Representatives in 2019.
    Of course, Trump’s impeachment odds were never favorable because the trial would be held by a Republican-controlled US Senate, but Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the US House proceeded anyway, mostly as a gesture, but they also held out hope that a handful of GOP Senators would grow a spine and vote with them.
    So, what was in the report on Hunter Biden? Although his dealings while working in the Ukraine bordered on underhanded, there was no new information revealed in the report that had not already been disclosed earlier.
    This is hardly a bombshell, and nowhere near the implications that Trump had hoped for or suggested.
    Biden’s Presidential betting odds have not changed following the release of the Hunter Biden report, and still feature him in a close lead at most sportsbooks.
    Depending on how you think the Presidential Debates will go, now could be the best time to place a bet on the 2020 election.
    Although there was very little included in the report on Hunter, don’t think the Donald won’t reference it in the debates as if it were a confirmation of widespread corruption in the Biden family.
    Joe Biden appears poised to target Trump and his record against the Coronavirus. He has already released a national television advertisement condemning Trump’s COVID-19 response, and it will be interesting to hear the President’s response in a live debate format.
    Two betting lines provided by MyBookie have placed odds on Joe Biden and his mention of COVID-19 at the debates. The first implies a near certainty that Biden will mention the number of deaths that have been caused by the Coronavirus thus far.
    Will Joe Biden Mention The Number Of USA COVID-19 Deaths?
    The second line indicates that there is a slight chance that Biden could misquote the number of COVID-19 deaths in the USA by over 100,000. Whether this would be an indication of Biden’s mental ineptitude is likely entirely dependant on the political party affiliation of the opinion holder.

    Bettors give McCain bid long odds.
    10/26/2008 07:13 PM EDT.
    Futures traders and sports books are setting overwhelming odds that the Illinois Democrat will win the presidency on Nov. 4.
    Ladbrokes, a massive online sports book based in the United Kingdom, puts the odds of an Obama win at 1-10, meaning a bettor must risk $10 to win one more. John McCain, meanwhile, is an 11-2 shot, so a dollar posted on him would pay out an additional $5.50. The site now pays out less for a bet on Obama winning in a 370-plus electoral landslide than it does for a McCain victory of any margin.
    Paddy Power, Ireland's largest bookmaker, no longer gives McCain any chance at all, having called the election for Obama on Oct. 15 and paid out over a million pounds on bets for the Democrat, whose line had moved from 50-1 in May of 2005 to 1-9 when the book closed.
    The wide spread between books — whose odds aren't intended to be predictive, but to split the action such that the house comes out ahead no matter who wins — stems from the relatively small size of the betting pool, which means they may not accurately represent expectations among the non-betting public.
    Futures markets, in which buyers and sellers negotiate a price for a contract that pays off if a postulated event in fact occurs, are also down on McCain. An option that pays $1 should McCain win now sells for just 14 cents at Dublin-based futures market Intrade and 13 cents on the Iowa Electronic Market. Both prices are record lows.
    Shortly after the Republican National Convention, McCain was a slight favorite in several markets, with a $1 option going for 54 cents on Intrade, and Ladbrokes giving the Republican 5-4 odds.
    While polls show a snapshot in time of who voters want to win, betting lines and futures trades show who bettors think will win. The good news for McCain is that the gamblers have not always been right.
    Just before the New Hampshire primary, Ladbrokes listed Obama as a prohibitive 1-33 shot to win, but he ended up losing that contest to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
    Intrade CEO John Delaney concedes that the predictive value of his market has been "mixed" so far this year. "They were sometimes wrong during the primaries, but often showed better clarity than the polls," he said.
    Trading volume on the site averages 10,000 trades a day of $1 million worth of presidential futures, up over 700 percent from 2004.
    The still relatively small size of the presidential betting markets, though, has left them open to charges of manipulation. Nate Silver, founder of the widely read electoral projections Web site FiveThirtyEight, noticed in September that "something is going on over at Intrade with respect to the pricing of the Obama and McCain contracts," when Obama futures in September were priced about 10 points less than at other markets, "the equivalent of the Giants being 3-point favorites at the Bellagio Sportsbook, and 7-point favorites at the Mirage down the block."
    An InTrade investigation found that one trader made repeated countercyclical buys of McCain futures large enough to raise their price — thus purchasing the options for considerably more than the same product would have cost on another market.
    InTrade's numbers are now widely posted around the Web, and seen, along with poll numbers, as a reliable gauge of the candidates' prospects — meaning someone with deep pockets has good reason to bend the numbers, and thus the perception of the race.
    At a posting on the InTrade site, Delaney reported that "an extensive investigation" found that the single investor responsible for the fluctuations was "using our markets in good faith and in the ordinary course of their business," and "using increased depth in these markets to manage certain risks," which he later told the New York Times could mean another "bookmaker using Intrade to hedge risk from their own customers.”
    Still, the markets have historically been very accurate in general elections.
    In 2004, futures traders at Intrade not only correctly priced President Bush to win, but also got the winner of each state right.
    Americans are barred from participating in InTrade's presidential futures market, whose members are mostly from Europe and the Middle East, and which is currently priced to show Obama winning many crucial swing states, including North Carolina (where an option paying off $1 for an Obama win now costs 64 cents, Pennsylvania (88), Indiana (59), Ohio (75), Colorado (85), Missouri (64), Virginia (80) and Florida (66).
    Iowa Business School professor Thomas Rietz, who runs the Iowa Electronic Market, said futures markets are "a lot less volatile than polls."
    One reason is that "heavily partisan traders tend to hang onto contracts that they shouldn't," Rietz said. "Buy-and-hold traders buy candidates they like, [while] price setters and volatility comes from independents."
    The market, which until 1996 was open only to students, operates as an educational tool, maintaining that status by capping traders at a $500 investment. It frequently operates at a loss.
    Since its founding in 1988, Iowa has run two types of futures markets, a winner-take-all market for predicting the winner—which has successfully "predicted" the winner of each of all six presidential elections—and a market where participants bet on the percent of the popular vote each candidate will receive, which has been off by an average of just more than 1 percentage point. It currently shows Obama winning 54 percent of the popular vote.
    Like polls, markets and betting lines tend to tighten as Election Day approaches.
    Ladbrokes spokesman Seth Woods warned against overvaluing the predictive value of betting lines, recalling that in 2004, "Bush was the favorite for the vast majority of the campaign until 24 hours before Election Day, when Kerry became a marginal favorite. Kerry was as short as 1-3 on the day of the election."
    Missing out on the latest scoops? Sign up for POLITICO Playbook and get the latest news, every morning — in your inbox.

    John McCain more likely to drop Sarah Palin, bookmakers say.
    The smart money thinks there's a better chance Tuesday than Monday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his running mate.
    Before the Republican senator's presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.
    "While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible," said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. "Lots of our punters are betting 'Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered," he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.
    The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29.
    Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.
    "Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain," said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. "He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned."
    Today, William Hill cut the odds that Palin, 44, would be sacked to 8-1 from 20-1. Paddy Power now puts the odds of Palin leaving the ticket at 14-1, compared to 28-1 before yesterday's disclosure about Bristol Palin, the daughter. The Paddy Power betting house is also offering 33-1 odds that she will go by the end of this week. Ladbrokes is offering 10-1 odds that Palin will quit the race.
    Intrade, a Dublin-based peer-to-peer betting Web site, opened a contract on Palin to be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee. The latest price was 12 cents, up 9 cents today. Each contract at that price will pay 88 cents per contract if Palin leaves the ticket.
    Political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor, according to a University of North Carolina study and figures from the Iowa Electronic Markets. Only twice in the century through 2004 — the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore — did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote.
    The last time a vice presidential candidate was dropped from the ticket was in 1972, when George McGovern's pick for the job, Tom Eagleton, left the Democratic campaign after disclosures he had undergone treatment for depression. McGovern went on to lose the election to Republican Richard Nixon.
    "It would be disastrous for his campaign were McCain to sack Palin, but it is not impossible that she could stand down should party chiefs feel that she is too controversial a choice who might end up costing McCain votes," said William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe.

    McCain seeks ban on college sports bets / Senator relishes fight with powerful lobby.
    2002-03-30 04:00:00 PDT Washington -- As millions of fans across the country prepare for today's NCAA men's basketball Final Four to see how they fared in office pools, legislators and lobbyists are weighing the odds of banning gambling on college sports.
    The issue pits the powerful Nevada casino lobby against the NCAA and its congressional allies such as Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who say the legal betting on amateur sports at hundreds of Nevada casinos feeds illegal betting on campuses and on the Internet, leads to corruption of college athletes and sets students on the path to becoming problem gamblers.
    So far, the gambling industry, which gave congressional and presidential candidates $11 million in campaign contributions in 2000, has prevented McCain's bill to ban gambling on collegiate sports from getting beyond the committee stage.
    But McCain, whose seven years of perseverance finally paid off recently with the enactment of sweeping campaign-finance law changes, relishes a fight against a powerful lobby.
    McCain's anti-gambling effort is in its third year, and the senator might push for a full Senate vote now that his epic campaign-finance battle is over.
    "He'll continue to look at good opportunities," McCain aide Nancy Ives said.
    She said McCain could attach his bill as an amendment to other legislation, a tactic designed to blunt the power of Nevada Sen. Harry Reid, the Democratic majority whip who could more easily block a vote if McCain tried to move his bill as separate legislation.
    A major opponent of the McCain bill, Reno's Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., conceded that if McCain can get his legislation to the floor, it could sail through. "It's very difficult for many members who get called by prestigious university presidents or coaches in their states to say no. If it gets out, it will have lots of momentum," Gibbons said.
    But Gibbons and other opponents scoff at the notion that McCain's proposal would curb illegal sports gambling around the nation. The Reno congressman has introduced a competing bill that would set up a national commission to study the problem and direct the NCAA and local authorities to crack down on illegal sports gambling on campuses.
    Sports betting on professional and amateur events is legal only in Nevada. The industry says you would never know it, given the lack of enforcement of anti-gambling laws across the country. Office pools are everywhere, and point spreads and odds on games are published in newspapers, including The Chronicle,
    and aired on TV and radio stations.
    What's more, the industry adds, the $3 billion bet legally on all sports annually at Nevada books is a tiny fraction of the amount bet illegally each year on sports.
    The industry also claims that Nevada casinos have tipped off the FBI to a few college basketball point-shaving scandals over the past several years by looking for unusual betting patterns on games.
    In the NCAA tournament, which wraps up with Monday's championship game, the numbers are huge for Nevada, second only to the amount bet on the Super Bowl. Nationally, authorities estimate about $5.2 billion is bet on the three-week March tournament, with about $100 million put down in Nevada casinos.
    The NCAA basketball tournament has become one of the biggest periods for Las Vegas, where most of the 125,000 hotel rooms are jammed with basketball fans during the three weekends of games. In addition to their bets, visitors are expected to spend about $70 million on hotel rooms, meals, drinks and shopping.
    "At our property, it's just as big as the Super Bowl," said Joe Lupo, manager of the race and sports book at the Stardust hotel, one of the best- known Nevada books. "The town overall is busier at March Madness from a hard- core betting point of view than at the Super Bowl."
    Lupo, who sets the point spread and odds at the Stardust, said banning legal gambling in Nevada will boomerang by driving sports betting completely underground and removing the Nevada Gaming Control Board from its regulatory role over the betting.
    "Banning it in Nevada won't affect the real problem at all," he added.
    But to a key advocate of McCain's bill, former California Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, the very idea of allowing legal gambling on college sports is abhorrent and counterproductive for society.

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